A likely record-strong El Niño points to a warm North and a wet South this fall. Good news for Southern drought, a later freeze up north.

Let's call the science straight. What is likely to become a record-strong El Niño "has its fingerprints all over the rest of this fall's weather," weather.com reports in its October and November outlook from The Weather Company. The short version: warm North, wet South. October is forecast to run warmer than average over much of the northern U.S., especially from the Northern Rockies across the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest, which could mean a later first freeze in parts of the north. It should be wetter than usual in much of the South, particularly along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida and Georgia. That's good news for the widespread Southern drought, as long as no tropical trouble rides along, and it's why parts of the Southwest, South Texas and the Southeast may run a tad cooler. The Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast may be a bit drier, which helps with the harvest. In November, virtually the entire eastern two-thirds of the country skews warmer than average, and some in the Midwest may not see a first snow until December. The wet pattern may stretch from California to the Northeast's I-95 corridor, while the Northwest, already in drought after last winter's paltry snowpack, may run dry. Here's the mechanism. "Strong El Niño analog years tend to feature a strong Aleutians low pressure system, helping amplify a downstream ridge of high pressure across the central and western U.S. in October," said Joshua Senechal, senior meteorologist with The Weather Company. In November, El Niño's pull on the southern jet stream only grows. Now the practical part. In the South, clean the gutters and test the sump pump. Planning a late-fall trip to the Gulf Coast or a Florida beach? Pack a rain jacket. Up north, enjoy the bonus weeks, but keep the frost cloth handy. An outlook is a lean, not a promise. It still pays to lean with it.