Nolo tracks south of Hawaii's Big Island, but up to 35 inches of rain is possible on the slopes

Tropical Storm Nolo sits just under 300 miles south of the Big Island and is forecast to become a hurricane, then a major hurricane by the weekend, according to weather.com, citing the National Hurricane Center. Recent model runs pushed the track south, and the Big Island is now outside the forecast cone. But the cone shows where the center might go, not where the weather will be. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center puts peak rainfall at up to 35 inches on parts of the Big Island and up to 20 inches on Maui, mostly on mountain slopes, with life-threatening flash floods and mudslides possible. A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is likely around the Big Island. If Nolo passes close, it could be the strongest hit to the Big Island since Hurricane Dot in 1959. The practical part: in storms like this, flooding kills more people than wind. If you have family on the islands, tell them never to drive into water covering a road. Turn around.