Phil Scott won 73% in 2024. A new Vermont Public poll has him up 42% to 32% over Democrat Amanda Janoo, with 20% undecided.

Republican Gov. Phil Scott, a five-term incumbent often hailed as the most popular governor in the country, is locked in the tightest reelection bid of his gubernatorial career, according to the Vermont Public 2026 Poll. In the survey of 817 Vermonters, 42% would vote for Scott and 32% for Democrat Amanda Janoo, a first-time statewide candidate who was a virtual unknown when she announced in March. Twenty percent are undecided, and the margin of error is 3.4 percentage points. Among likely voters it's 44% to 34%. Scott won 73% of the vote in 2024 and has won each of his last three reelection bids by at least 40 points. His approval has slipped to 45%, from 60% in Vermont Public's 2022 poll, and his approval among Democrats has fallen 31 points over four years. "I think some of what we're seeing here is the partisan polarization nationally is filtering down to Vermont," said Middlebury College political scientist Matt Dickinson. Former Republican lawmaker Kurt Wright pointed to fatigue and to Scott's school-funding overhaul, which would shift spending decisions from local boards to the state; strong majorities of both parties oppose that. Pollster Rich Clark says Scott still holds a statistically significant lead, and Vermont hasn't ousted an incumbent governor in more than 60 years. Scott's campaign says Janoo's proposals, including substantial tax increases on second-home owners and high earners, are the ideology he has fought in the Legislature for a decade. As a lifelong Democrat, credit where it's due: Scott has won big in Vermont talking about affordability and balance, with a lot of Democratic votes. The fair counterpoint: long tenures invite fatigue. But if Democrats are souring on him mostly because of Washington, that isn't a verdict on Montpelier. My test is simple: judge a governor on budgets, schools and roads, and give Janoo the same test.