Consumer sentiment slips to 48.1, a four-month low, and folks now expect 4.6% inflation in the year ahead. The checkout line feels it first.

Pour a cup and brace yourself. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipped to a final September reading of 48.1, down from 51.7 in August and the lowest in four months, Reuters reports. That's a hair better than the preliminary 47.8, but the index is down 15% since January, and people's views of their own finances, now and a year out, both weakened about 10%. The number that matters at any checkout counter: shoppers now expect prices to rise 4.6% over the next year, up from 4.0% in August and from 3.4% in February, before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began. Five-year expectations ticked up to 3.4% after three months at 3.3%. "Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year," said survey director Joanne Hsu. Republican sentiment is now 20% below January, and Democrats are down 13%. Store-owner math: when a customer expects things to cost more next month, she either buys now and puts it on the card or quits buying the extras. Either way the till feels it before any economist does. Kitchen-table translation: this isn't a red mood or a blue mood. It's a grocery-receipt mood, and it won't lift until prices stop climbing.