Hurricane Nolo, 105 mph at its core, skirts Hawaii's Big Island. The big threat is rain, up to 16 inches. Third hurricane in two months.

Let's call the science straight. Hurricane Nolo was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds when its outer rain bands reached Hawaii's Big Island Friday evening, NBC News reports, citing the National Hurricane Center. At about 5 p.m. local time it sat roughly 145 miles south of South Point, creeping north-northeast at 3 mph. Forecasters expected it to stay south of the island through Saturday, then turn west and speed away, strengthening into a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, over the weekend. The center of a hurricane isn't the whole hurricane. The main threat here is water: 8 to 12 inches of rain on the eastern and southern Big Island, up to 16 in spots, and 4 to 6 inches on Maui, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible in steep terrain. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning cover Hawaii County, with high surf and possible waterspouts. Gov. Josh Green said President Trump approved an emergency declaration. This is the third hurricane to brush Hawaii in less than two months, after Lala and Lowell, in a Pacific season NBC ties to a record-setting El Nino. "We're talking years. This is going to be a long recovery," said Naalehu resident Mark Peters, whose community is still rebuilding. Forecasts have shifted all week, so check the latest advisory. Charge phones, fill water jugs, know your nearest shelter and stay off flooded roads. Rain doesn't need a direct hit to do its worst.