CDC's fall outlook: COVID, flu and RSV hospital peaks likely similar to last year, and COVID is already rising. "Not a forecast," CDC says.

The CDC released its 2026-2027 respiratory disease season outlook on Sept. 23, and the short version is "about like last year." The agency expects the peak combined hospitalization rate from COVID-19, flu and RSV to land within 20% of last season's, with what it calls low to moderate confidence, and it stresses this is a baseline assessment, "not a forecast." As of Sept. 18, COVID activity was elevated and increasing nationally, though hospitalizations remained low overall, and flu activity was low. CDC expects this flu season to be moderate in severity. For COVID it modeled two scenarios. Without a new immune-evading variant, weekly hospitalizations would peak between 1.4 and 2.5 per 100,000, likely in early to mid-January. With one, the peak could reach 2.8 to 6.7 per 100,000, likely in late January. As a former epidemiologist, I read this as a planning document, not a prophecy. The season runs October through May, and CDC says it will update the outlook as things change. If you care for an older parent or live with a chronic condition, this is a good month to ask your doctor or pharmacist what protection makes sense for you.